The walk of life.
It might be the last thing middle-aged people want to know, but scientists have developed a test that accurately predicts their chance of dying within the next five years.
From Thursday, people aged between 40 and 70 can answer a set of simple questions to gauge their health and find out their chance of making it to 2020.
And the scientists claim they do not even need to carry out a physical examination to predict the risk accurately. Instead, people are questioned about their walking speed, financial situation, previous illnesses, marital status and whether they have had previous illnesses.
Participants can calculate their five-year mortality risk as well as their “Ubble age” – the age at which the average mortality risk in the population is most similar to the estimated risk. Ubble stands for “UK Longevity Explorer” and researchers say the test is 80 per cent accurate.
To create the test, Professor Erik Ingelsson and Dr Andrea Ganna, from the Karolinska Institutet in Sweden, analysed data collected between 2006 and 2010 from nearly half a million British adults aged between 40 and 70.
They then worked out what health and lifestyle factors were the best indicators of short-term death.
Surprisingly, they found that self-reported health information was generally a stronger predictor of death than biological measurements, such as pulse rate and blood pressure.
Walking pace – judged as brisk, slow or steady – was found to be linked more strongly to the risk of death in both men and women than smoking habits and other lifestyle factors.
The developers say they hope it will help those people at risk to make lifestyle changes before it is too late.
“The fact that the score can be measured online in a brief questionnaire, without any need for lab tests or physical examination, is an exciting development,” Dr Ganna said.
“We hope that our score might eventually enable doctors to quickly and easily identify their highest risk patients, although more research will be needed to determine whether it can be used in this way in a clinical setting.
“Of course, the score has a degree of uncertainty and shouldn’t be seen as a deterministic prediction. For most people, a high risk of dying in the next five years can be reduced by increased physical activity, smoking cessation and a healthy diet.”
Last year, Finnish scientists found that a simple blood test could predict the chance of death within five years by looking for biomarkers linked to cancer, heart disease and diabetes. They found they could spot a general level of “frailty”, which increased the risk of early death.
However, this is the first test that does not need any biological information of invasive testing.
But some experts warned that the test could lead to panic among the worried well.
Professor Simon Thompson, director in research of biostatistics at Cambridge University, said: “This concept is similar to that of heart age developed for communicating cardiovascular risk.
“Whether this will help individuals improve self-awareness of their health status, however, or only lead to so-called cyberchondria, is a moot point.
“Moreover, five-year mortality is easier to predict than long-term morbidity, or quality of life and life expectancy, all of which are more important to individuals and to society.”
The research was published in The Lancet.
The test can be taken at ubble.co.uk, a website developed by the British charity Sense About Science.
The questions:
1. What is your age?
2. What is your gender?
3. How many children do you have/have given birth to?
4. Do you smoke tobacco now?
5. In the past how often have you smoked tobacco?
6. In general how do you rate your overall health?
7. Do you have a long standing illness or disability?
8. How would you describe your usual walking pace, slow, steady or brisk?
9. Have you ever seen a GP for nerves, anxiety, tension or depression?
10. Has a doctor ever told you that you have cancer?
11. In the last two years have you experienced; serious illness, injury or assault to yourself; serious illness, injury or assault to a close relative; death of a close relative; death of a spouse or partner, marital separation or divorce; financial difficulties?
12. Do you receive any of the following; Carer’s allowance; Disability allowance; disability permit?
The Telegraph, London