The byelection date has not been called, but the battle for the inner-north Brisbane electorate of Stafford has already begun in earnest.
After weeks of clashes with his Liberal National Party colleagues, former Assistant Health Minister Chris Davis resigned his seat on Friday, resulting in southeast Queensland’s second state byelection – and third overall – in 2014.
Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk said Labor had “hit the ground running” as she made her first campaign appearance with her party’s candidate, maxillofacial surgeon Anthony Lynham, at Wilston on Saturday morning.
She said Premier Campbell Newman needed to announce a byelection date as soon as possible, but dismissed a prediction from political scientist Paul Williams that a Labor victory was all but certain.
“I don’t believe that for a moment because you can never take an electorate for granted,” Ms Palaszczuk said.
Dr Lynham, who had expected to face the polls in 2015, said he was ready to run and had already arranged for two maxillofacial surgical colleagues to locum for him while he was on the campaign trail.
“I know this is going to be a tough battle. I’m not confident – I want to get out there and win the respect of the people of Stafford,” he said.
While Dr Lynham said he was not confident of victory, Dr Williams, a senior lecturer in politics at Griffith University, predicted a swing against the LNP of about 10 per cent, at least half of which would be a “natural correction” from the Newman landslide of 2012.
Prior to his resignation, Dr Davis held Stafford with a margin of 7.1 per cent.
“Any way you slice it, the LNP’s going to get touched up quite badly,” Dr Williams said.
But Treasurer Tim Nicholls was not ready to concede defeat for the Newman government.
“I think people will understand that the only party, the only team, that has a strong plan for a bright future for Queensland is the LNP,” he said.
“It’s a government that has been focused on getting into front-line services, improving hospital outcomes, improving dental outcomes, delivering better law and order on the street and fixing our financial position.
“When you compare that to what’s been offered by those opposite, you’ll see that they are offering nothing. They are simply saying ‘look at us – we’re out here walking the streets’.
“They’re not offering a plan for the future.”
Redcliffe voters delivered a stinging 17 per cent swing against the Newman government in the February byelection, brought on by the resignation of disgraced former MP Scott Driscoll.
Dr Williams said a loss of that magnitude for the government was not on the cards for Stafford.
Unlike Mr Driscoll, Dr Davis commanded respect from most quarters – including from the man who wants to replace him in Parliament.
“We do have respect for each other. We do share a lot of moral and ethical views because that’s our education – we’re brought up through the medical field,” Dr Lynham said.
“We’re humanists, we like our fellow human beings, but Chris and I did differ – a lot – on some of the more strident things within politics.
“Some of the simple things, like Chris was a firm believer that you stoke the rich and the crumbs fall to the poor, I’m not of that ilk.
“I reckon people who are working class and poor deserve to be given opportunities … You bring people up – don’t feed them crumbs from the top.”
Mr Nicholls said Mr Newman had sought advice from the Clerk of Parliament about the timing of the byelection, which he expected to be announced “in the near future”.
“All byelections are tough fights and this government doesn’t in any way, shape or form presume that it’s going to go one way or the other,” he said.
The LNP has yet to preselect a candidate for Stafford.
In the meantime, Mr Nicholls said Brisbane Central MP Robert Cavallucci would represent the people of Stafford in Parliament in a caretaker role.